{"id":4362,"date":"2013-09-16T09:44:36","date_gmt":"2013-09-16T13:44:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/?p=4362"},"modified":"2013-09-16T14:43:46","modified_gmt":"2013-09-16T18:43:46","slug":"an-update-of-where-we-are","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/?p=4362","title":{"rendered":"An update of where we are"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On September 13, 2013, SaveTheBalaFalls.com had the opportunity to present an update to the Township of Muskoka Lakes Council.<\/p>\n<p>The presentation is <a href=\"https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/SaveTheBalaFalls.com-Public-Safety-Concerns-20130916.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Additional information provided subsequently follows:<\/p>\n<p><b>Summary<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The insurance cost cited is from <a href=\"https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/Economic-Impact-to-Waterpower-Projects-on-Crown-Lands-in-Ontario-201204.pdf#page=13\" target=\"_blank\">this MNR report<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>The proponent\u2019s dangerous flow simulation shown would occur throughout the year, including many times each summer.<\/li>\n<li>The required cycling operation would both amplify the lower flows of the summer, and would result in the proposed station\u2019s operation beginning \u2013 silently and without warning \u2013 just when people would already be in the water. The result would be extreme danger and drownings.<\/li>\n<li>Despite repeated requests, the proponent has not had an organization competent in swimming safety provide comments or suggestions on their current proposal.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u00a0<b>Detail<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>1)<\/b> Concerning the insurance cost cited in <a href=\"https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/?p=4296\" target=\"_blank\">this article<\/a>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>This information is from <a href=\"https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/Economic-Impact-to-Waterpower-Projects-on-Crown-Lands-in-Ontario-201204.pdf#page=13\" target=\"_blank\">this Ministry of Natural Resources\u2019 recent study<\/a> entitled \u201c<i>Economic Impact of Waterpower Projects on Crown Lands in Ontario<\/i>\u201d. Section 3.11 Costs, Table 2 (page 5) provides annual operating costs per MW of station capacity, where of the Total Operating Expenditures of $134,000, the Insurance Premium is $75,000.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>I might add that this report carefully tallies economic benefits, but does not present any negative economic impacts, and therefore provides an incomplete and deceptive conclusion. Last year, I therefore sent\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/MNR-Economic-Impact-20120911.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">this letter<\/a> to the MNR, and received <a href=\"https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/MNR-Response-to-Economic-Impact-Concerns-20121002.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">this response<\/a>. Remarkably, the MNR simply replies that providing a balanced view of the economic impact was \u201cbeyond the scope of this project\u201d.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>2)<\/b> Concerning how often the high flow used in the proponent\u2019s flow simulation <a href=\"https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/?p=4296\" target=\"_blank\">presented here<\/a> would actually occur:<\/p>\n<p>Firstly, this flow simulation is from the proponent\u2019s Environmental Screening Report Addendum, released July 20, 2012, and this last page is entitled \u201cFlow Velocity Field, Downstream Channel, Post Development, Q=98 cms\u201d. This flow therefore represents the proposed generating station operating at full capacity, as confirmed by Section 2.1.2 of this Addendum.<\/p>\n<p>Since February 2013, SaveTheBalaFalls.com has had an analysis of the Moon River water flow <a href=\"https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/?p=4103\" target=\"_blank\">posted here<\/a>, some conclusions from this and the proponent\u2019s information provided are as follows:<\/p>\n<p>a) While the average flow through the generating station in the summer months is typically low, it would be amplified by the required cycling operation:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>For example, Section 2.1.6.1 (page 2-5) and Figure 2.4 of the proponent\u2019s 2009 Environmental Screening Report shows that the flow through the Bala North Falls is typically less than 10 m\u00b3\/s during the summer months (as any excess water now flows through the Bala South channel). However, the proponent would be required to operate the proposed generating station in a cycling mode operation during low flow periods \u201csuch that its operating discharge is 26 cms or more\u201d (according to the December 15, 2010 signed agreement with Ontario Power Generation). Therefore, the flow at the base of the Bala North Falls would be increased during plant operation from less than 10 m\u00b3\/s to more than 25 m\u00b3\/s \u2013 an increase by a factor of more than 2\u00bd.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>And shown in \u201cDetail \u2013 Cycling Operation\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/?p=4103\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>, this cycling operation would occur for about \u2153 of summer days, with operation beginning soon after 11:00 am on those days (which would be the most likely time for people to be in the water near the tailrace of the proposed station).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Therefore, this substantial increase in flow would occur often enough to be significantly dangerous.<\/p>\n<p>b) Operation at the station\u2019s full capacity is shown in \u201cDetail \u2013 Running at Full Capacity\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/?p=4103\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>It shows that during the 44 years of historical water flow data available, the station would have run at full capacity at least ten times during most every week of the year \u2013 even the summer weeks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Specific analysis is provided for the most recent years the data was available, including that the station would have run at full capacity in 2009 both until May 25 and from July 31 to August 3. In 2008 the station would have run at full capacity; to May 26, from June 10 to June 25, from July 4 to 6, from August 12 to 20, and from September 16 to 22. And in 2007 the station would have run at full capacity to May 6, and from July 21 to 22.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>That is, the station would operate at full capacity, as shown in the proponent\u2019s flow simulation, many times each summer. So the drowning danger would be present often enough to be significant.<\/p>\n<p>As noted, this information has been posted on the SaveTheBalaFalls.com website for over six months and we have not received any concerns about its accuracy. As always, contact us at <a href=\"mailto:info@SaveTheBalaFalls.com\">info@SaveTheBalaFalls.com<\/a> to discuss this data, the calculations, or anything else on the website.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>3)<\/b> Concerning our claim that drowning would result from the proposed station\u2019s tailrace being so close to the in-water recreational area at the base of the Bala North Falls:<\/p>\n<p>To begin with an example, I don\u2019t think one needs any particular qualification other than some common sense to say that children should not play on the shoulder beside a busy highway.<\/p>\n<ol style=\"list-style-type: lower-alpha;\">\n<li>Further, when the proposed station is operating at full capacity (often enough, as noted above) the speed of the water from the tailrace would be faster than an Olympic swimmer can swim \u2013 as is <a href=\"https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/?p=4344\" target=\"_blank\">noted here<\/a>. Given the water exiting the station\u2019s tailrace would be churning and turbulent due to the station\u2019s turbine rotation, I think it is common sense that even when operating at less than full capacity, for example at the 26% for the required cycling operation, people would still drown in this fast water which would be just feet from where people would be swimming.<\/li>\n<li>I should note that despite repeated requests, the proponent has never had an organization competent in swimming safety provide any suggestions, concerns or advice about their proposals. I would be happy to defer to such input.<\/li>\n<li>Given the proponent\u2019s extremely biased view, unsubstantiated assurances of safety from them should be ignored.<\/li>\n<li>I should also note that as provided by the example of the Moon River Property Owners Association\u2019s concerns that known rocks and shoals in the Moon River are not marked, there is no organization responsible for public safety. As the Township of Muskoka Lakes would be the most affected by drownings due to the proposed station, it would be in the Township\u2019s interest to pursue their own confirmation of public safety independent of the proponent.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On September 13, 2013, SaveTheBalaFalls.com had the opportunity to present an update to the Township of Muskoka Lakes Council. The presentation is here. Additional information provided subsequently follows: Summary The insurance cost cited is from this MNR report. The proponent\u2019s dangerous flow simulation shown would occur throughout the year, including many times each summer. The <a href='https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/?p=4362' class='excerpt-more'>[&#8230;]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4362","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-background","category-3-id","post-seq-1","post-parity-odd","meta-position-corners","fix"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4362","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4362"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4362\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4362"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4362"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/savethebalafalls.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4362"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}