The proposed project would make all this too dangerous to continue …

Apr 232017

As Britney Spears would say: “Oops!… I Did It Again”.

Again this year, the MNRF have not done all they could to prevent flooding Lake Muskoka. As shown by the graph below (click on it for a larger view), this spring 2017 the water level of Lake Muskoka reached 6.3″ above the Normal Operating Zone (NOZ).

Lake Muskoka water level, January 1, 2016 to April 23, 2017, showing draw-down in advance of peak water level, which was 11.3″ of flooding in 2016 and 6.3″ of flooding in 2017

The Muskoka River Water Management Plan (MRWMP) specifies the range of acceptable water levels for Lake Muskoka. This is called the Normal Operating Zone, and is between the two blue horizonal lines in the graph below. If the water level is below the NOZ, there are problems such as disruption to shoreline wildlife habitat and boat propellers hitting rocks. And if the water level is above the NOZ, there is flooding.

To prepare for the spring freshet, the MNRF draws down the water level of Lake Muskoka during the winter. As shown in the graph above, the MNRF began the winter draw-down about January 1 this year, reaching the maximum draw-down on February 22, 2017. As shown in the graph below (click on it for a larger view), the MRWMP allowed the MNRF to draw down the water level of Lake Muskoka 15.5″ more than they did this year. The end result of this inadequate draw-down is that on April 22, 2017 the water level of Lake Muskoka reached a peak of 6.3″ above the NOZ, causing flooding.

It is very disappointing that after the significant flooding last year (article from spring 2016 is here), the MNRF did about the same inadequate draw-down this year as last.

We know there are complexities such as how much snow is on the ground and its water content, and that the inches of inadequate draw-down does not directly correspond to inches of flooding. But the facts are:

  • Flooding would be reduced if there was greater draw-down.
  • The existing MRWMP allowed the MNRF to draw down the water level of Lake Muskoka much more than they did this past winter (and the winter before that as well).

A huge unknown factor is whether the winter draw-down could not be started sooner due to Ontario Power Generation not agreeing to open their Moon Dam sooner, more detail about this is here. If OPG is a cause of flooding Lake Muskoka, then it would be MNRF’s responsibility of representing and balancing the needs of the public to work with OPG on this issue.

We know that the MNRF cannot always prevent flooding due the constraints in the watershed, the MRWMP, and in working with OPG. But it appears that the MNRF could do more within the existing MRWMP, and could certainly be more open with the public about the draw-down constraints and decisions made.

As Britney Spears said (perhaps of the MNRF): “I’m not that innocent”.

  One Response to “The MNRF: “Oops I did it again”

  1. Incompetence, camouflaged as techno speak, comes from the MNRF every year for the past eight years. Whoever looks after water levels on the lake should have a vested financial interest on the lake. Each year I phone and each year I’m told exactly the same thing…the Ministry’s responsibility is not to the cottager, it’s to the lake trout and preservation of shoreline.
    They cost us each lots of money with their inability to control water levels. This is not brain surgery…it means being observant and proactive. These morons get paid and take government pensions for continuously making wrong decisions. They need to be stopped!

 Leave a Reply

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>